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Reply: Terra Mystica:: Organized Play:: Re: Season 24 of TM Tour Has Started

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by Steve496

Ranior wrote:

I'm guessing black is in practically every tournament game. More so I'm not actually sure that's so wrong...I would bet the number of situations where every player has a better pick than Darklings is very small if not nonexistent. Therefore among good players, we probably should expect to see black in practically every game.


More than that: even if there was potentially a better pick for all players, I'm not sure how we'd know. In the past 6 seasons, the top 4 divisions have only had 30 games with neither Darklings or Alchemists - hence, we have basically no data about what those matchups look like, which factions might be favored in them, and so on.

Also note that its not just a matter of black being in the game - its that they're usually the first pick. Of the 630 games meeting the above criteria, there have been 390 where black is picked first. And there are reasons for this: they do have the best average first-pick results across all factions that have been picked first at least 3 times in that period. But it does mean that not only are we playing almost all Darklings games, we're mostly playing games where all players know from the outset that its going to be a Darklings game.

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