by Ranior
Steve496 wrote:
More than that: even if there was potentially a better pick for all players, I'm not sure how we'd know. In the past 6 seasons, the top 4 divisions have only had 30 games with neither Darklings or Alchemists - hence, we have basically no data about what those matchups look like, which factions might be favored in them, and so on.
Also note that its not just a matter of black being in the game - its that they're usually the first pick. Of the 630 games meeting the above criteria, there have been 390 where black is picked first. And there are reasons for this: they do have the best average first-pick results across all factions that have been picked first at least 3 times in that period. But it does mean that not only are we playing almost all Darklings games, we're mostly playing games where all players know from the outset that its going to be a Darklings game.
Yep, all very true.
I'm not hopeful that there are better picks for all players though. I'm fairly convinced picking Darklings early and often really is a good strategy for winning. Ever since you brought to my attention the concept of matchups mattering possibly as much or more than round set ups, and then learning how to use the tool to find matchup stats, I'm not sure I've ever seen a set up where Darklings are expected to do worse than 2nd. Certainly not one that has a decent number of high level games.
Basically what I'm saying is that I have few hopes that this is just a blip and that the metagame will slowly shift to something else over time. Hence why I'd love to see some changes, but also fully understand that Terra Mystica has probably sold over 100,000 copies or more and the number of players who are really effected by this "problem" number in the hundreds at best. So why would the developers actually spend time to make an update to the game like that? And if they're not, is there really enough community interest in creating what would amount to a variant and play that variant over the "official" rules?
Ah well. I still have fun in the tournament and will continue to do so. I just suspect the game would be even more interesting and varied if Darklings weren't so dominant and the weak factions were viable choices more often.